Messi Hat Trick. France Won. England vs Croatia Today. The Full Market Picture.

Prediction market prices as of June 17, 2026. England vs Croatia tips today at 4 PM ET, AT&T Stadium, Dallas.

On the same night: Messi scored a hat trick. Mbappé led France to a 3-1 win. Haaland's Norway beat Iraq 4-1. Three of the four most recognizable names in world football all scored in a six-hour window.

The tournament winner market moved accordingly.

What Last Night Did to the Market

Argentina entered their opener against Algeria at 8.7 cents on Polymarket. They are now at 11%. Messi scored at the 17th, 60th, and 76th minutes in a 3-0 win at Arrowhead Stadium. It was his first World Cup hat trick in six tournaments — and his 16th World Cup goal overall, drawing level with Miroslav Klose's all-time record.

France are at 17.7% on Polymarket and 17.2% on Kalshi after their 3-1 win over Senegal. That is the market's clearest signal yet — France have now won a match and Mbappé is in form. They were already the market leader after Spain drew with Cabo Verde. The win consolidates that position.

Spain are down to 14.5% — a fall of nearly three percentage points from where they started the tournament. One dropped result against a debutant has cost them over two cents of implied probability with five games still to play.

Track live World Cup prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

England vs Croatia — 4 PM ET Today

England have not played yet. They open their tournament today against Croatia at AT&T Stadium in Dallas — the same Croatia side that knocked them out of the 2018 World Cup in extra time.

England came into this tournament at 10.4 cents on Polymarket. That number has not moved much while other teams have been repriced by actual results. Today changes that. A comfortable win would push them up. Anything less — particularly against a Croatia side with Modric still pulling strings at 41 — would send them lower fast.

The history is loaded. 2018 World Cup semifinal: Croatia 2-1 AET. Euro 2020 group stage: England 1-0 Croatia at Wembley. Neither result was comfortable. The market is pricing England as slight favorites today, but slight is doing a lot of work.

The Table After Six Days

France lead the winner market at 17.7%. Spain are at 14.5%. Portugal, who play DR Congo today at 1 PM ET, are at around 11%. Argentina are at 11% after last night. England at 10.4% — before their first match.

Germany are at around 7% after their 7-1 demolition of Curaçao. Brazil drew 1-1 with Morocco and are lower than most expected pre-tournament.

The field is compressing. Spain's drop has opened space, but France have taken most of it. The question the market is now asking is whether any of the 9-11% group — Portugal, Argentina, England — can close the gap on France before the knockouts.

Track live soccer prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/soccer.

Short Version

Messi hat trick (3-0 Algeria), France 3-1 Senegal, Norway 4-1 Iraq — three results that moved the market. Argentina up from 8.7% to 11%. France at 17.7%, Spain at 14.5%. England vs Croatia today at 4 PM ET — England's tournament opener, loaded rematch. Messi is now tied with Klose at 16 World Cup goals. Live prices at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Track live World Cup 2026 prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Last updated: June 17, 2026. Sources: Polymarket, Kalshi, ESPN, CBS Sports, DeFi Rate.