France Won Again. Argentina Are Second in the Market. Six Days Until the Knockouts.

Prediction market prices as of June 22, 2026. Group stage ends June 27. Round of 32 begins June 28.

France beat Iraq 3-0 today. Argentina beat Austria 2-0. Argentina have now won both group games without conceding. France have won both, conceding once. Both are through to the Round of 32.

The market has responded. Argentina have moved into second place in the tournament winner market — above Spain and England — for the first time since the tournament began.

France: Two Games, Two Clean Sheets, Still the Market Leader

France are sitting at approximately 20% on Polymarket heading into their final group game. They beat Senegal 3-1 in their opener and Iraq 3-0 today. Six goals scored, none conceded. Mbappé scored twice against Senegal. The squad is fit and the performances are convincing enough that traders have not found a reason to trim their position.

Their final group game is against Norway on June 26. Norway beat Iraq 4-1 in their opener and beat Senegal 3-2 today. Norway are live. That match will matter for how France are seeded in the bracket — and for whether their price moves before the knockouts begin.

Track live World Cup prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Argentina Move to Second

Argentina's 2-0 win over Austria today pushed them above Spain and England in the tournament winner market. Before the tournament started, Argentina were at 8.7%. They are now firmly in the 12-13% range — a near-doubling driven by Messi's hat-trick against Algeria in their opener and a second clean sheet today against Austria.

The market is now reading Argentina as the second most likely winner, behind only France. That is a significant repricing. At the start of the tournament, the market was pricing Spain above Argentina by nearly five percentage points. Spain have since dropped from 17% to 13.1%, while Argentina have risen. The gap between them has inverted.

Spain's Slide

Spain play Saudi Arabia today — their second group game. A win would help rebuild confidence after the Cabo Verde draw, but their price has not recovered toward their pre-tournament level regardless. Spain entered the tournament as co-favourites with France. They are now at 13.1% on Kalshi, more than four percentage points below France.

The Cabo Verde draw sits at the centre of that drop. A 0-0 result against a team making their World Cup debut, priced at 92% to lose, has left a dent that two further wins alone may not fully repair. Traders are pricing Spain to go deep — but no longer to win it all with the same conviction as they were ten days ago.

The Round of 32 Is Taking Shape

The group stage ends June 27. The Round of 32 begins June 28. Several brackets are already confirmed.

USA will play Bosnia-Herzegovina on July 1 in Santa Clara. Bosnia qualified from Group B in third place. The USA are clear favourites for that match. Mexico won Group A with a perfect record — two wins from two so far, with one group game remaining. Brazil won Group C after beating Haiti 3-0.

The knockout draw will solidify over the next five days. Prediction markets on individual Round of 32 matches will open as soon as the bracket is set — and given $3 billion already traded on the winner contract alone, the volume on knockout matches will be significant.

Track live soccer prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/soccer.

Short Version

France 3-0 Iraq, Argentina 2-0 Austria — both through, both unbeaten. Argentina moved to second in the winner market (12-13%), above Spain (13.1%) and England (12.9%). France lead at ~20%. Spain down from 17% pre-tournament after the Cabo Verde draw. Group stage ends June 27, Round of 32 starts June 28. USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina confirmed July 1, Santa Clara. Live prices at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Track live World Cup 2026 prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Last updated: June 22, 2026. Sources: Yahoo Sports, Polymarket, Kalshi, DeFi Rate, Nate Silver / Silver Bulletin.