Ronaldo Made History Tuesday. France Are Running Away With the Market.

Prediction market prices as of June 25, 2026. Japan vs Sweden and Netherlands vs Tunisia tip today. Group stage ends tomorrow, June 26.

Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice against Uzbekistan on Tuesday. Portugal won 5-0. He became the first man in history to score at six different World Cups — a record that spans 2006 to 2026, 20 years of tournaments.

England drew 0-0 with Ghana the same night. The market treated the two results very differently.

Ronaldo's Record

Ronaldo's first World Cup goal came in 2006, against Iran, at 21 years old. His two against Uzbekistan on Tuesday came at 41. No player has scored across six separate World Cups. Pelé, Messi, and Klose all scored in four. The previous record for tournaments scored in was five, which Ronaldo himself already held.

Portugal's win moved them to six points from two games. They face Colombia in their final group match on Saturday with a chance to top the group outright.

Track live World Cup prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

France Are Out in Front

France are at 24.3% on Kalshi and 23.0% on Polymarket to win the tournament. No other team is within seven percentage points. Their opening 3-1 win over Senegal, followed by a 3-0 win over Iraq, has produced the clearest gap between first and second place in the tournament winner market at any point so far.

The size of that gap matters more than the headline number. A team this far ahead of the field, this early, is unusual — markets typically compress as a tournament progresses and weaker teams get eliminated, not separate further. France's final group game is against Norway on Friday.

England's Flat Night

England drew 0-0 with Ghana on Tuesday after their 4-2 win over Croatia in the opener. The result did not move their price meaningfully — they remain around 12-13% — but it also did not advance the case that they are a genuine contender to close the gap on France.

Ghana have been one of the surprises of the group stage. A point against England, after taking a point from Panama in their opener, has Ghana in a position to potentially advance from a group most pre-tournament models had them finishing bottom of.

What $100 Billion Looks Like

Kalshi crossed $100 billion in lifetime notional trading volume last week and followed it with its first-ever billion-dollar single trading days, recorded on consecutive days over the weekend. The platform's weekly volume has broken its own record three weeks running — $6.38 billion the week of June 8, then $7.49 billion and climbing the week of June 15.

That volume is concentrated almost entirely in the World Cup. It is the largest sustained trading event in prediction market history, and the group stage has not even finished yet.

Argentina's Path Opens Up

Argentina's chances improved this week for a reason that had nothing to do with their own form. Portugal finishing second in their group, behind likely group winners, has handed Argentina a clearer route through the bracket toward the semifinals — fewer high-seeded opponents standing between them and a deep run.

Argentina remain behind France in the winner market, but the bracket shape is now working in their favor heading into Saturday's final group games.

Track live soccer prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/soccer.

Short Version

Ronaldo scored twice against Uzbekistan, becoming the first man to score at six World Cups. Portugal won 5-0. England drew 0-0 with Ghana — price unmoved at 12-13%. France lead the winner market at 24.3% Kalshi / 23.0% Polymarket, the widest gap over the field yet. Kalshi crossed $100 billion in lifetime volume and posted its first-ever billion-dollar trading days. Group stage ends tomorrow. Live prices at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Track live World Cup 2026 prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Last updated: June 25, 2026. Sources: WorldFootball.net, DeFi Rate, Yahoo Sports, Kalshi, Polymarket.