The Quarterfinals Are Here. France Play Morocco Today. Here’s the Full Market Picture.

Prediction market prices as of July 9, 2026. France vs Morocco tips today at 4 PM ET, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough. $4.1 billion traded on Polymarket World Cup markets.

Eight teams remain. Four matches decide the semi-finalists. The first kicks off today.

France vs Morocco — The Rematch

France beat Morocco 2-0 in the 2022 World Cup semifinal. The Atlas Lions are back. Same stage, different tournament, and Morocco arrived here by eliminating the Netherlands on penalties in the Round of 32 and outclassing Canada in the Round of 16.

France are priced at approximately 33-35% to win the tournament on both Kalshi and Polymarket — the clear market leader by a wide margin. They have scored 14 goals and conceded 2 across five matches. Kylian Mbappé has scored in four of those five games. Ousmane Dembélé scored a hat trick in 32 minutes against Norway in the group stage — a World Cup record for the fastest hat trick.

Morocco are at roughly 3.5% in the winner market. The market is pricing France as heavy favourites in today's match — France to advance sits at approximately 81% implied probability. That same dynamic existed in 2022. Morocco advanced from that tournament having beaten Spain and Portugal in the knockouts. They have already beaten the Netherlands and Canada in this one.

Track live World Cup prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Spain Have Not Conceded a Goal

Spain have played five matches at this tournament. They have conceded zero goals. Against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay, Austria, and Portugal — nothing. Mikel Merino scored a late winner against Portugal in the Round of 16 to send them through. Spain are now at 18.6% to win the tournament, having surged from 12.3% before that Portugal match. They play Belgium on Friday.

Spain are unbeaten in 35 consecutive matches since March 2024 — tying the longest undefeated run in their history.

Argentina's Near-Miss

Argentina were trailing Egypt by two goals in the 78th minute of their Round of 16 match on Tuesday. They won. The exact path of that comeback has already become one of the tournament's defining moments — Messi has now scored seven goals in four games at this World Cup.

The market repriced them immediately. Argentina went from 21.3% to 16.5% on Kalshi and 17.3% on Polymarket after that unconvincing performance — even though they won. Traders are discounting the result and pricing the manner. They face Switzerland in the quarterfinal on Saturday.

Norway Eliminated Brazil

Erling Haaland scored twice against Brazil in the Round of 16. Norway won 2-0. Brazil — five-time World Cup winners, the most in history — are out. Haaland has 62 international goals in 54 appearances for Norway. This is Norway's first-ever World Cup quarterfinal. They play England on Saturday in Miami.

England beat Mexico 3-2 at the Estadio Azteca in the Round of 16 — England winning in Mexico City, on Mexican soil, in a World Cup knockout match. England have now made three consecutive World Cup quarterfinals for the first time since the period between 1962 and 1970.

Track live soccer prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/soccer.

Short Version

Four quarterfinals start today. France vs Morocco at 4 PM ET — 2022 semifinal rematch, France at 33-35%, Morocco at 3.5%. Spain 0 goals conceded in 5 matches, now at 18.6%. Argentina survived 2 goals down in the 78th minute vs Egypt, dropped from 21.3% to 17.2%. Norway 2-0 Brazil (Haaland 2 goals) — Norway's first-ever quarterfinal. England beat Mexico 3-2 at Azteca. $4.1 billion traded on Polymarket. Live prices at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Track live World Cup 2026 prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Last updated: July 9, 2026. Sources: FOX Sports, DeFi Rate, ESPN, Lineups.com, Polymarket, Kalshi.