Spain Drew 0-0 With Cabo Verde. France Are Now the Tournament Favorite.

Prediction market prices as of June 16, 2026. France vs Senegal tips today at 3 PM ET. Argentina vs Algeria at 9 PM ET.

Spain had a 92% implied probability to beat Cabo Verde on Monday. Cabo Verde are ranked 67th in the world. Their population is 500,000. The match ended 0-0.

France are now the World Cup favorites.

What the Draw Did to the Market

Spain entered their opener at 17 cents on Polymarket — the market leader heading into the tournament. After 90 minutes against a World Cup debutant in Atlanta, they fell to 15.1 cents.

France moved up to 18.3 cents. They are now the tournament favorite on both Kalshi and Polymarket.

The rest of the top five: Portugal at 11.9 cents, England at 10.4 cents, Argentina at 8.7 cents. Brazil are at 6.6 cents, Germany at 6.1 cents.

One Polymarket trader had $1 million on Spain to win the match. That position paid out around $86,000 if it had landed. It didn't.

Track live World Cup prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

France Play Today

The new market leader tips off against Senegal at 3 PM ET. France are heavily favored in that match — but Spain were 92% to beat Cabo Verde on Monday, and that number means less than it did 48 hours ago.

The Spain result has injected legitimate uncertainty into a tournament that, up to Monday, had felt relatively settled at the top. France winning today would reinforce their market position. Any kind of stumble would move prices sharply again.

Argentina Tonight

The defending champions play Algeria at 9 PM ET. Argentina are sitting at 8.7 cents — fifth in the tournament winner market, behind four European sides.

That is already a low number for a team that won the 2022 World Cup. A loss or draw tonight against Algeria would push them further down. For context: Saudi Arabia beat Argentina in 2022 when Argentina had similar pre-match probability to Spain's Monday number. Algeria are ranked 36th in the world — not Saudi Arabia territory, but not Cabo Verde either.

What Spain's Drop Means for the Group

Spain are in Group H with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cabo Verde. They now have one point from one game. Uruguay drew 1-1 with Saudi Arabia on Monday, so the group is completely open.

The risk for Spain: if they finish second in the group, they likely face the Group G winner in the round of 32 — which Polymarket currently prices as Argentina. A Spain vs Argentina knockout match in the round of 32 would be the most-traded individual match contract in prediction market history.

Spain are still likely to qualify. They are not likely to win the tournament the way the market priced them a week ago.

Track live soccer prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/soccer.

Short Version

Spain drew 0-0 with Cabo Verde (92% pre-match probability). France moved to 18.3 cents as the new World Cup market leader. Spain fell to 15.1 cents. France play Senegal today at 3 PM ET. Argentina play Algeria tonight at 9 PM ET — defending champions sitting at 8.7 cents. Live prices at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Track live World Cup 2026 prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Last updated: June 16, 2026. Sources: Polymarket, Kalshi, Fox Sports, Sports Betting Dime, Yahoo Sports.