England Are at 12.8%. Ronaldo Is Still Scoreless. This Is the Market Right Now.

Prediction market prices as of June 18, 2026. Mexico vs Korea Republic tips tonight at 9 PM ET, Estadio Akron, Guadalajara.

England beat Croatia 4-2 yesterday. Harry Kane scored twice. Jude Bellingham scored on his World Cup debut. Marcus Rashford came off the bench and added a fourth in the 85th minute.

At the same time, Cristiano Ronaldo played 90 minutes against DR Congo and had zero shots on target.

The market noticed both.

What England's Win Did to the Price

England entered the tournament at 10.4 cents on Polymarket. Before kick-off against Croatia, traders had them at roughly 9%. This morning they are at 12.8% — a jump of nearly four percentage points on a single result.

The 4-2 scoreline understates how dominant England were. They had 11 shots on target — their most in a World Cup game since 1998. It was their first World Cup win against a side ranked inside FIFA's top 15 since 2002 against Argentina, ending a nine-game winless run against that calibre of opponent at the finals.

Kane now has 10 World Cup goals, tying Gary Lineker as the highest scorer in England's history at the tournament. He is six behind Messi and Klose at the top of the all-time list.

Track live World Cup prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Ronaldo's Problem

Portugal drew 1-1 with DR Congo. Joao Neves scored inside six minutes. DR Congo equalised through Yoane Wissa in stoppage time at the end of the first half — DR Congo's first-ever World Cup goal in their fourth appearance.

Ronaldo played the full 90 minutes and had zero shots on target. It was his tenth consecutive major tournament match without scoring, across the World Cup and Euros. In those ten games he has taken 33 shots with 11 on target. Portugal had 75% possession and seven shots in total. DR Congo had eight.

Portugal are at roughly 10-11% in the tournament winner market — where they started before their opener. They have not moved despite results that include a draw against a team that had never scored a World Cup goal before yesterday.

Where the Market Stands

France lead at 18.4% on Polymarket after their 3-1 win over Senegal. Spain are at 13.8% — down from 17% before the tournament after their 0-0 draw with Cabo Verde. England at 12.8% are now third. Argentina sit at 11.6% after Messi's hat trick against Algeria.

The total volume on the World Cup winner market on Polymarket alone has crossed $2.6 billion. That is more than any previous sporting event contract on the platform.

Tonight: Mexico vs Korea Republic

The host nation plays their second group game tonight at 9 PM ET in Guadalajara. Mexico won their opener 2-0 against South Africa. Korea Republic won their opener 2-1 against Czechia.

Both teams won. Both need a result tonight to consolidate their position at the top of Group A. The market has Mexico as solid favorites at home — a win would put them in a strong position to top the group before their final match against Czechia.

Track live soccer prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/soccer.

Short Version

England 4-2 Croatia — Kane 10 WC goals (tied Lineker), Bellingham on debut, Rashford off the bench. England jumped from ~9% to 12.8% on Polymarket. Portugal 1-1 DR Congo — Ronaldo 0 shots on target, 10 straight major tournament games without scoring. France lead at 18.4%, Spain 13.8%, Argentina 11.6%. Tonight: Mexico vs Korea Republic, 9 PM ET. Live prices at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Track live World Cup 2026 prediction market prices across Kalshi and Polymarket at predictions.io/lobby/fifa-world-cup.

Last updated: June 18, 2026. Sources: Polymarket, Kalshi, ESPN, Yahoo Sports, DeFi Rate.