Lobby
Economics
Lobby Cap
595,449,054
77%Transactions
21,858
## Economics prediction markets — Fed rates, recession, and macro forecasts This lobby aggregates every active economics prediction market from Kalshi and Polymarket into one feed. Federal Reserve rate decisions, recession probability, inflation, GDP, unemployment, and global macro outcomes — all priced in real time as economic data releases and central bank decisions reshape expectations. ### What's covered - **Federal Reserve** — rate decision outcomes for every FOMC meeting, cut/pause/hike probability - **Recession** — US recession probability by year-end, GDP contraction markets - **Inflation** — CPI milestone markets, PCE targets, inflation regime change odds - **Employment** — unemployment rate markets, non-farm payroll outcome bets - **Global macro** — ECB, Bank of England, and other central bank decision markets - **Trade & tariffs** — tariff revenue markets, trade deficit forecasts ### How to use this lobby Fed decision markets are the most liquid and trade on a monthly cycle — they move sharply in the 48 hours before each FOMC meeting as economic data comes in. Sort by resolution date to find the nearest upcoming catalyst. Recession markets are longer-duration and reprice with each major data release (CPI, NFP, GDP). This lobby attracts some of the most macro-informed traders on the platform — the whale tracker is worth following here for positioning ahead of major data drops. Updated in real time. Sharpest moves on CPI release days and FOMC meeting days.
Markets
83
Yes
24%No
77%
Shown: 8 of 83
Stats
Overall Sentiment
51%
49%
Bullish
Bearish
Volume
595,449,054
Transactions Amount
0
Open Interest
7,641,965
Active Users
10,931
Events
8
Market Providers
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Stats
Overall Sentiment
51%
49%
Bullish
Bearish
Volume
595,449,054
Transactions Amount
0
Open Interest
7,641,965
Active Users
10,931
Events
8
Market Providers
The Economics lobby tracks real-money forecasts on the US and global economy — Federal Reserve rate decisions, recession probability, inflation milestones, and GDP outcomes — aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket into one feed.
The most active markets right now: Fed decision in April and June — with traders pricing the probability of cuts, pauses, and hikes across the remainder of 2026. The US recession market is also live, with traders betting on whether the economy tips into contraction by end of year. Fed decision markets resolve monthly, giving economics-focused traders a consistent cycle of high-conviction opportunities.
This lobby attracts macro traders, fixed income professionals, and economists who follow Fed communications and economic data releases closely.
