Recession this year? — In 2026
$3,666,950 volume on Kalshi
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Starts
5.0%$0.05
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How this market resolves
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi rules
Related events
- Will the Citrini scenario happen? — Before July 2028 — Yes 21¢
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? — In 2026 — Exactly 0 cuts 95¢
- Fed decision in Oct 2026? — On Oct 28, 2026 — Fed maintains rate 85¢
- S&P close price end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST — 8,000 to 8,199.99 23¢
- US recession by end of 2026? — Yes 7¢
Selected BetStartsTrading via Kalshi
Market Volume$3.67M
Yes
No