Will the Citrini scenario happen? — Before July 2028
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How this market resolves
If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi rules
Related events
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? — In 2026 — Exactly 0 cuts 97¢
- S&P close price end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST — 7,600 to 7,799.99 18¢
- Fed decision in Dec 2026? — On Dec 9, 2026 — Hike 25bps 77¢
- Recession this year? — In 2026 — Starts 2¢
- US recession by end of 2026? — Yes 4¢