When will the next US recession start? — Next recession
$520,467 volume on Kalshi
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How this market resolves
Rules for the outcome “Q1 2026”. Every other outcome on this page resolves on its own criteria.
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi rules
Related events
- Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025? — Yes 1% · Same question on Manifold
- Will the Citrini scenario happen? — Before July 2028 — Yes 21¢
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? — In 2026 — Exactly 0 cuts 95¢
- Fed decision in Oct 2026? — On Oct 28, 2026 — Fed maintains rate 85¢
- S&P close price end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST — 8,000 to 8,199.99 23¢
Selected BetQ1 2026
Trading via Kalshi
Market Volume$86.0K
Yes
No