US Politics

Same Midterm Question. 8.5 Points Apart on Two Platforms. Here’s What That Means.

Kalshi and Polymarket price identical midterm questions 8.5 points apart. The median cross-venue gap is over 4 points. Here's what the spread actually means.

New York Sued Kalshi for $36 Billion. The CFTC Filed Back. Here’s What the Legal Fight Means.

New York AG sued Kalshi for $36 billion on July 31. The CFTC filed to block it. Here's what the legal fight means for prediction markets.

Polymarket’s Volume Fell 56% After the World Cup. Kalshi Held. New York City Is Probing the Ads.

Polymarket volume fell 56% from June's peak. Kalshi dropped 25%. NYC is probing prediction market ads. Here's what the post-World Cup numbers say.

Polymarket Was Worth $9 Billion Ten Months Ago. Now It’s $20 Billion. Here’s Why.

Polymarket is raising $1 billion at a $20B+ valuation, months after closing at $15B. Kalshi is already at $22B. Here's how fast the industry has grown.

34,000 Trades Flagged. A Soldier Charged. Prediction Markets Have an Insider Trading Problem.

Bloomberg flagged 34,000 suspicious Polymarket trades. A soldier was charged for using classified intel. Here's the insider trading problem in 2026.

Polymarket Says No Mandatory KYC. Here’s What the Feud With Kalshi Is Actually About.

Polymarket confirmed no KYC on its main platform — only the Perps beta. Here’s what the Kalshi feud reveals about prediction market regulation. Real time.

The Insider Trading Problem Prediction Markets Can’t Ignore

Can you insider trade on prediction markets? We look at what the rules are, where the grey areas are, and what it means for the integrity of the market.