Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
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How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe. This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met. The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm)…
Source: Polymarket rules — excerpt of the text the venue publishes.
Related events
- Will the Citrini scenario happen? — Before July 2028 — Yes 21¢
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? — In 2026 — Exactly 0 cuts 95¢
- Fed decision in Oct 2026? — On Oct 28, 2026 — Fed maintains rate 84¢
- S&P close price end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST — 8,000 to 8,199.99 23¢
- Recession this year? — In 2026 — Starts 4¢
