GDP growth in 2026
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How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source: Polymarket rules
Related events
- Will the Citrini scenario happen? — Before July 2028 — Yes 21¢
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? — In 2026 — Exactly 0 cuts 95¢
- Fed decision in Oct 2026? — On Oct 28, 2026 — Fed maintains rate 85¢
- S&P close price end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST — 8,000 to 8,199.99 23¢
- Recession this year? — In 2026 — Starts 5¢
