Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

$296,592 volume on Manifold

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Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

37.8%$0.38

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Will the Citrini scenario happen? — Before July 2028 — Yes 21¢
Number of rate cuts in 2026? — In 2026 — Exactly 0 cuts 95¢
Fed decision in Oct 2026? — On Oct 28, 2026 — Fed maintains rate 84¢
S&P close price end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST — 8,000 to 8,199.99 23¢
Recession this year? — In 2026 — Starts 4¢

Selected BetWill the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

M

Trading via Manifold

Market Volume$296.6K

Yes

37.8%

No

62.2%

No whale trades found for this event.