State of the economy at the end of 2026 — In Dec 2026
$115,326 volume on Kalshi
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How this market resolves
Rules for the outcome “Overheating”. Every other outcome on this page resolves on its own criteria.
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is Below 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi rules
Related events
- Will the Citrini scenario happen? — Before July 2028 — Yes 21¢
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? — In 2026 — Exactly 0 cuts 95¢
- Fed decision in Oct 2026? — On Oct 28, 2026 — Fed maintains rate 85¢
- S&P close price end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST — 8,000 to 8,199.99 23¢
- Recession this year? — In 2026 — Starts 5¢
Selected BetOverheating
Trading via Kalshi
Market Volume$51.3K
Yes
No