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Global Markets lobby background

Lobby

Global Markets

Lobby Cap

14,181,816

Transactions

3,234

## Global markets prediction markets — tariffs, trade policy, and international economics This lobby aggregates every active global trade and international markets prediction market from Kalshi and Polymarket into one feed. Tariff policy outcomes, trade deal timelines, court rulings on executive trade authority, and international economic decisions — all tracked in real time. ### What's covered - **US tariffs** — tariff rate markets, revenue forecasts, legal challenge outcomes - **Supreme Court** — rulings on presidential trade authority and tariff legality - **Trade deals** — bilateral deal timelines, which countries reach agreements with the US - **Trade deficit** — US trade deficit forecast markets by year-end bracket - **Tariff refunds** — court-ordered refund probability markets - **International trade** — WTO dispute markets, global supply chain disruption odds ### How to use this lobby Trade policy markets are highly event-driven — Supreme Court ruling dates, negotiation deadlines, and executive order announcements all trigger immediate repricing. Follow the legal calendar for tariff challenge cases and the diplomatic calendar for trade negotiation timelines. These markets have direct implications for equity and commodity traders — the whale activity here often reflects positions being taken by traders who are also positioned in related financial markets. Sort by resolution date to find the nearest upcoming catalyst. Updated in real time. Most active around court ruling dates and trade negotiation deadlines.

Markets

25

Shown: 8 of 25

Stats

Overall Sentiment

32%

68%

Bullish

Bearish

Volume

14,181,816

Transactions Amount

0

Open Interest

91,584,817

Active Users

332

Events

8

Market Providers

kalshipolymarket

KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26MAY16VALMUN-MUN

$2,326.46

on

YES

$0.88

KXLNBELITEGAME-26MAY161300GRAJLB-JLB

$4,773.65

on

YES

$0.99

KXBTC15M-26MAY161430-30

$1,211.00

on

NO

$0.97

KXBTC15M-26MAY161430-30

$1,505.00

on

NO

$0.97

KXLNBELITEGAME-26MAY161300GRAJLB-JLB

$1,865.43

on

YES

$0.99

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5

$2,689.87

on

NO

$0.53

Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-16?

$4,202.42

on

YES

$0.96

Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-16?

$3,312.96

on

YES

$0.98

Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship?

$1,986.01

on

NO

$0.95

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers

$1,730.43

on

NO

$0.51

Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina

$4,887.47

on

NO

$0.42

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers

$1,276.16

on

NO

$0.50

Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship?

$3,530.97

on

NO

$0.94

Will Gujarat Titans win the IPL?

$1,068.11

on

NO

$0.77

KXSAUDIPLGAME-26MAY16AASAKH-AAS

$1,014.93

on

NO

$0.39

KXBTC15M-26MAY161415-15

$1,048.95

on

NO

$1.00

KXATPCHALLENGERMATCH-26MAY16VALMUN-VAL

$1,106.82

on

YES

$0.33

KXMLBGAME-26MAY161810CINCLE-CLE

$1,660.04

on

YES

$0.59

KXBTC15M-26MAY161415-15

$1,818.64

on

NO

$1.00

KXMLBGAME-26MAY161415KCSTL-STL

$1,530.00

on

YES

$0.51

The Global Markets lobby tracks prediction market odds on trade policy, tariffs, and international economic decisions — the most directly market-moving political category outside of elections. All markets source from Kalshi and Polymarket.

The biggest markets right now: Will the Supreme Court rule in favour of Trump's tariffs, Will tariffs generate $250B+ in 2025, Will the Court force Trump to refund tariffs, and which countries Trump makes new trade deals with before 2027. The US trade deficit for 2026 is also actively traded with multiple price brackets open.

Trade policy markets move with every court ruling, negotiation announcement, and executive order. This is where macro traders and international business professionals put real money on the outcomes moving global supply chains.