Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
Prices here are free to read and need no account. A free account lets you bookmark this market, follow the traders moving it, and opt in to the weekly digest. We never hold funds or place trades.Create a free account →
How this market resolves
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered. Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10%…
Source: Polymarket rules — excerpt of the text the venue publishes.
Related events
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027? — Israel 14¢
- Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China? — During his term — Before 2029 14¢
- Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026? — Before Jan 2027 — a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump 12¢
- Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026? — in 2026 — Wind turbines 26¢
- S&P price on Oct 12, 2026 at 10am EDT? — On Oct 12, 2026 at 10am EDT — 7,775 or above 99¢
