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Economics lobby background

Lobby

Economics

Lobby Cap

1,134,542,662

96%

Transactions

61,812

Markets

128

Shown: 8 of 128

Stats

Overall Sentiment

75%

25%

Bullish

Bearish

Volume

9,897

Transactions Amount

0

Open Interest

2,728

Active Users

14,475

Events

8

Market Providers

kalshimanifold

Recent trades of $500+ in the last 7 days

Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?

$715.95

on

NO

$0.71

Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?

$1,043.73

on

NO

$0.70

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

$817.94

on

YES

$0.84

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

$1,702.06

on

YES

$0.84

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

$1,000.00

on

NO

$0.90

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

$4,426.89

on

YES

$0.84

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

$1,700.00

on

NO

$0.17

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

$2,798.68

on

YES

$0.17

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

$7,901.70

on

YES

$0.80

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

$1,812.22

on

YES

$0.80

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

$1,984.11

on

YES

$0.21

Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

$8,000.00

on

YES

$0.80

Will the S&P 500 be between 8600 and 8799.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?

$59,026.10

on

NO

$0.98

The Economics lobby tracks real-money forecasts on the US and global economy — Federal Reserve rate decisions, recession probability, inflation milestones, and GDP outcomes — aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket into one feed.

The most active markets right now: Fed decision in April and June — with traders pricing the probability of cuts, pauses, and hikes across the remainder of 2026. The US recession market is also live, with traders betting on whether the economy tips into contraction by end of year. Fed decision markets resolve monthly, giving economics-focused traders a consistent cycle of high-conviction opportunities.

This lobby attracts macro traders, fixed income professionals, and economists who follow Fed communications and economic data releases closely.

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kalshimanifold
128Markets

Economics

The Economics markets are moving. Join the discussion.

MA
martking

185d ago

lol 89% for june cut after they just held steady again? seems like easy money

MA
martking

188d ago

honestly 45% feels way too low. ai is already changing everything and we got 2 more years for it to get even crazier