Will JD Vance be the presidential nominee in 2028?
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How this market resolves
Currently, Donald Trump is considered to be most likely to be the Republican nominee for president. Will his vice president be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? Being vice president is often seen as a stepping stone for becoming president (for example, Bush after Reagan and Biden after Obama). In addition, if the president dies, they become the new incumbent. On the other hand, Pence was Trump's vice president during his first term, and that seems to have hurt his chances in the 2024 race. If Trump does not have a vice presidential pick (for example, if he does not win the nomination), this resolves N/A. If he has multiple vice presidents for any reason, the one that is inaugurated at the same time with him in 2025 will be the one that this market refers to. If he runs as a non-Republican, this market will refer to whatever party he ran as. If that party ceases to exist, it will refer to the Republican party.
Source: Manifold rules
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