Will there be a competitive Republican primary in 2028?
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How this market resolves
The answer resolves YES if at least two named candidates in the 2028 Republican presidential primaries satisfy at least one the following criteria: Won at least 5 contests (by popular vote) Won at least 10% of the total number of pledged delegates Won at least 25% of the total popular vote Otherwise, the answer resolves NO. Note that winning any of the first four contests does not automatically satisfy the criteria. All criteria are calculated based on the candidate's performance at the end of the nomination process. For example, the 2024 Republican primary is not considered competitive, since Nikki Haley only won 2 contests, receiving 4.3% of the total pledged delegates and 19.7% of the popular vote. However, the 2020 Democratic primary is considered competitive since Bernie Sanders received 28.1% of the total pledged delegates and 26.2% of the popular vote. This question will resolve after a candidate is officially nominated at the 2028 Republican National Convention.
Source: Manifold rules
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