How high will unemployment get in 2026? — Before 2027
$809,916 volume on Kalshi
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How this market resolves
Rules for the outcome “Above 4.5%”. Every other outcome on this page resolves on its own criteria.
If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%, the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi rules
Related events
- Fed Decision in October? — No change 95¢
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? — In 2026 — Yes 94¢
- Fed decision in Oct 2026? — On Oct 28, 2026 — Fed maintains rate 94¢
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? — In 2026 — Exactly 0 cuts 94¢
- Largest Company end of December 2026? — NVIDIA 62¢
Selected BetAbove 4.5%
Trading via Kalshi
Market Volume$35.2K
Yes
No