Will there be a year without polio before 2030? — Before 2030
$43,011 volume on Kalshi
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Before 2030
7.9%$0.08
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How this market resolves
If there is any year between 2024 and 2029 in which there are zero reported wild cases of poliovirus 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi rules
Related events
- Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030? — Yes 52% · Same question on Manifold
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? — ↑5.5k 99¢
- Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? — Yes 27%
- Will chess be solved by 2040? — Yes 25%
- Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030? — Yes 10%
Selected BetBefore 2030Trading via Kalshi
Market Volume$43.0K
Yes
No