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Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?

$936 volume on Manifold

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manifold
Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?
52.2%$0.52
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Selected BetWill there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?
M
Trading via Manifold
Market Volume$936
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
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