The Fed Raised Rates. Three October Dates to Watch Next.
Published September 20, 2026. Event dates below come from the Federal Reserve and Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is a calendar and market-reading guide, not a live odds feed.
The Fed raised interest rates on Wednesday. The next question is whether it does it again in October.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve increased its target range by a quarter of a percentage point, to 3.75%–4.00%. All 12 voting members backed the decision. The Fed described inflation as elevated and economic activity as expanding at a solid pace. Those are the facts in its official statement.
They do not tell us what the next decision will be. Before that meeting, readers will get new information about jobs and consumer prices. If you follow Fed markets on Kalshi or Polymarket, those releases are worth putting in your calendar now.
Three Dates to Watch
October 2: the September jobs report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics schedules its Employment Situation release for 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. This is the next monthly update on payroll employment and unemployment. Read the full release rather than stopping at the number in a social headline: the employment picture can contain more than one signal.
October 14: the September inflation report. September’s Consumer Price Index is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. CPI measures changes in consumer prices. It adds another piece of evidence before the policy meeting, but it is not itself a Fed decision.
Both release dates are listed in the BLS calendar. They are scheduled dates and can change; check the calendar again closer to release day.
October 27–28: the next Fed meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee meets over two days, with October 28 the date to watch for its decision. That timing comes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting calendar.
What This Means for Prediction Markets
A Fed market puts a price on a specific outcome. That might be a quarter-point increase at the October meeting, no change at that meeting, or a rate increase at any point before the end of the year.
Those are three different questions. A trader can expect no change in October and still expect a later increase. Comparing those two prices as if they describe the same event would create a misleading “gap.”
For an October comparison, start with the October meeting on both venues. Then check the size and direction of the rate change. A quarter-point increase is 25 basis points; a quarter-point cut goes the other way. Similar-looking titles are not enough.
The other important distinction is between an outcome and its price. A market price tells you what traders are willing to pay under that contract’s rules. It is not a statement from the Fed, and it is not a guarantee that the outcome will happen.
A Simple Way to Follow the News
Before a release, save the exact market question, its deadline and the time of the price you are looking at. After the release, read the official numbers first. Then check the same contract again.
That gives you a useful question to ask: did the market change its view after new information arrived? It is much more informative than comparing an old screenshot with a fresh headline.
If you decide to compare venues, check the actual price available to buy or sell, along with fees and the amount available at that price. A displayed percentage may represent a recent trade rather than the price available for your order. A difference between two headline percentages alone does not establish a saving.
You can use Predictions’ Kalshi and Polymarket comparison as a starting point for understanding the venues. Check each venue’s current contract rules and quotes before making a decision. This article deliberately does not publish a price spread: its purpose is to help you follow the next releases without confusing dates, outcomes or old prices.
The Short Version
The September hike is confirmed. The October decision is still ahead.
Put October 2, October 14 and October 28 in your calendar. Follow the official releases, compare the same question across venues, and check the price you can actually trade at. You can follow the whole story without placing a trade.
Sources checked September 20, 2026: Federal Reserve September 16 statement and meeting calendar; Bureau of Labor Statistics 2026 release schedule. Hero image: original AI-generated editorial illustration.
