Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
Prices here are free to read and need no account. A free account lets you bookmark this market, follow the traders moving it, and opt in to the weekly digest. We never hold funds or place trades.Create a free account →
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket rules
Related events
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? — Yes 2¢
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? — Yes 2¢
- Trump out as President before 2027? — Yes 3¢
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? — Yes 2¢
- Donald Trump out as President? (Excluding death) — Before 2027 — Before January 20, 2029 32¢
