Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

$112,244 volume on Manifold

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Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

14.6%$0.15

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? — Yes 49%
Best AI at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 — Claude 47¢
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? — Yes 5%
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 — Yes 14%
OpenAI IPO by...? — June 30, 2027 41¢

Selected BetWill we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

M

Trading via Manifold

Market Volume$112.2K

Yes

14.6%

No

85.4%

No whale trades found for this event.