Will Tesla offer a Robo-Taxi service in California by the end of 2026?
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How this market resolves
Will it be possible for a non Tesla employee to ride in a fully autonomous Tesla vehicle in California by the end of 2026? Has to be a paid service that non Tesla employees can use. Has to be in a car not owned or leased by the rider. Has to be a point to point ride of at least 1 mile. Has to be on public roads in a city. Hailing app could be third-party, but car guidance/self-driving must be handled by Tesla. Boring company tunnels don’t count. Update 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Safety Driver Clarification: Rides that involve a safety driver in the vehicle will not count as fully autonomous. Only rides with no human intervention in control (i.e., without a safety driver) will meet the criteria for a valid Robo-Taxi service. Update 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria with the following points: A service with a waitlist or that is invite-only will count, as long as riders are not Tesla employees. To be considered "offering the service," there must be a significant scale of operation. The creator has proposed a threshold of 50,000 rides per week in California. A single ride or token…
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