Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

$24,665 volume on Manifold

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Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

10.2%$0.10

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? — Yes 50%
Best AI at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 — Claude 46¢
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? — Yes 5%
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 — Yes 14%
OpenAI IPO by...? — June 30, 2027 41¢

Selected BetWill Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

M

Trading via Manifold

Market Volume$24.7K

Yes

10.2%

No

89.8%

No whale trades found for this event.