Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
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How this market resolves
"Mass-movement political activism" = groups that organize protests, do letter-writing campaigns to congressmen, etc... people talking into megaphones, a somewhat simplified message & somewhat adversarial approach to politics, you get the idea. As opposed to think-tank-style groups that are primarily focused on elite persuasion or shaping detailed legislation. Examples include "PauseAI" and the people who hired this truck protesting against Responsible Scaling Policies. The message of the activism doesn't have to be "pause AI" or even X-risk focused; it just has to be broadly pro-regulation of AI. To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support mass-movement AI activism, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars. "EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill &…
Source: Manifold rules — excerpt of the text the venue publishes.
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