Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?

$12,474 volume on Manifold

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Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?

28.0%$0.28

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Best AI at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 — Claude 44¢
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? — Yes 48%
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? — Yes 6%
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 — Yes 14%
OpenAI IPO by...? — June 30, 2027 35¢

Selected BetWill an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?

M

Trading via Manifold

Market Volume$12.5K

Yes

28.0%

No

72.0%

No whale trades found for this event.