Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?
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How this market resolves
Resolves the same way as the corresponding Metaculus question. Its description is copied below: What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)? Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to AI Impacts, discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to: A party gaining decisive strategic advantage A single important ‘deployment’ event Other very sudden and surprising events A previous question did a good job operationalising Human-machine intelligence parity. It proposes a generalised intelligence test that compares machine systems to human experts in each…
Source: Manifold rules — excerpt of the text the venue publishes.
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