Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

$19,304 volume on Manifold

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58.4%$0.58

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Best AI at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 — Claude 50¢
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? — Yes 46%
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? — Yes 6%
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 — Yes 14%
AI bubble burst by...? — June 30, 2027 21¢

Selected BetWill a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Trading via Manifold

Market Volume$19.3K

Yes

58.4%

41.6%

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Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

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