Will a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?

$364,907 volume on Manifold

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Will a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?

5.2%$0.05

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How this market resolves

I (Bayesian) bet the mathematician Elliot Glazer that a Millennium Problem will be solved in 2026 by a non-lab AI-only effort. More details here: [image]This bet will resolve on the basis of Daniel Litt's judgement.

Source: Manifold rules

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? — Yes 50%
Best AI at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 — Claude 44¢
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? — Yes 6%
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 — Yes 14%
OpenAI IPO by...? — June 30, 2027 38¢

Selected BetWill a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?

M

Trading via Manifold

Market Volume$364.9K

Yes

5.2%

No

94.8%

No whale trades found for this event.