Will a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?

$364,945 volume on Manifold

Prices here are free to read and need no account. A free account lets you bookmark this market, follow the traders moving it, and opt in to the weekly digest. We never hold funds or place trades.Create a free account →

manifold

Will a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?

4.7%$0.05

Loading chart...

How this market resolves

I (Bayesian) bet the mathematician Elliot Glazer that a Millennium Problem will be solved in 2026 by a non-lab AI-only effort. More details here: [image]This bet will resolve on the basis of Daniel Litt's judgement.

Source: Manifold rules

Best AI at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 — Claude 49¢
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? — Yes 47%
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? — Yes 6%
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 — Yes 14%
AI bubble burst by...? — June 30, 2027 21¢

Selected BetWill a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?

M

Trading via Manifold

Market Volume$364.9K

Yes

4.7%

No

95.3%

No whale trades found for this event.