OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

$24,069 volume on Manifold

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31.3%$0.31

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? — Yes 49%
Best AI at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 — Claude 47¢
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? — Yes 5%
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 — Yes 14%
OpenAI IPO by...? — June 30, 2027 41¢

Selected BetOpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

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Market Volume$24.1K

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31.3%

68.7%

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OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

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