Major internet outage due to undersea cables breaking by end of 2026?
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How this market resolves
Over 99% of the internet across borders travels through undersea fiber optic cables. There are about 500 of these cables, and each year about 200 need to be repaired (mostly due to accidents). It is trivial for military to deliberately break these cables. There are in most cases redundancies, but if enough break there could be massive outages across the internet. An outage affecting a single country will be enough for this market to resolve to YES. An outage that reduces speeds significantly even though there is still connectivity will resolve to YES. An outage for a reason other than an issue with the undersea cables will NOT resolve the market to YES.
Source: Manifold rules