In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

$15,639 volume on Manifold

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56.5%$0.56

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Best AI at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 — Claude 56¢
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? — Yes 47%
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? — Yes 6%
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 — Yes 14%
AI bubble burst by...? — June 30, 2027 23¢

Selected BetIn 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Trading via Manifold

Market Volume$15.6K

Yes

56.5%

43.5%

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In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

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