By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

$55,508 volume on Manifold

Prices here are free to read and need no account. A free account lets you bookmark this market, follow the traders moving it, and opt in to the weekly digest. We never hold funds or place trades.Create a free account →

88.9%$0.89

Loading chart...

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? — Yes 49%
Best AI at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026 — Claude 50¢
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? — Yes 5%
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100 — Yes 14%
OpenAI IPO by...? — June 30, 2027 46¢

Selected BetBy 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Trading via Manifold

Market Volume$55.5K

Yes

88.9%

11.1%

Trade

No whale trades found for this event.

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Related events